Scott Breaks Down the Weekend Box Office

Scott called this week's article "Despicable Ranger", and based off the reviews, that seems pretty fitting for one of the pictures.

Last weekend taught us that Melissa McCarthy has solidified herself as a box office draw as The Heat earned just shy of $40 million and came in second place behind Monsters University. As well, we learned that Roland Emmerich maybe best suited for large scale epic blockbuster movies, as his latest movie (White House Down) left everyone surprised with how poorly it did. It brought in $25 million and has much farther to go to make back its $150 million budget. So, are those pointless lessons learned, or do they hold any relevance to this week’s new releases? I believe that they have a lot to teach us.

The lackluster performance of White House Down shows us that you can throw as much budget as you want into a buddy action/comedy, you can attach star power as can be grabbed, and nothing will guarantee that you will make back your budget. The key aspect to a ‘buddy film’ is (and this will sound incredibly simplistic) the buddy relationship. The audience needs to be lured in and charmed by the chemistry between the two leads involved. This concerns me because the trailers for The Lone Ranger do not depict an endearing or emotional relationship between The Lone Ranger (Armie Hammer) and Tonto (Johnny Depp). Come to think of it, the trailer does not depict much other than an obvious attempt to redo Pirates of the Caribbean.

And, to ponder a rhetorical question, will The Lone Ranger make Pirates of the Caribbean style money? In doing a little bit of research online it is interesting to see that predictions on the success of this film have been getting lower and lower. It is getting mauled by critics, and when compared to GI Joe: Retaliation, who had a midweek open as well, made similar amounts in its first full day in theatres (around $10 million). I don’t believe that Jerry Bruckheimer would like his movie being compared to a schlocky movie about children’s toys, but there it is. This movie may have a long way to go to make up its ridiculously high budget which I have seen estimated at as high as $275 million.

The Lone Ranger 5 Day Opening Weekend Prediction - $55 million

The fact that Monsters University was able to stave off The Heat and hold the number one spot in the box office demonstrates just how powerful an animated family movie can be. Not only can they grab a whole lot of consumer dollars during opening weekend, but the drop in monies from week to week is generally a lot lower than most other genres. But now the Pixar movie will really meet its competition as Despicable Me 2 opens up with a five day weekend, and has already proven to be a big contender. In its first day in theatres, Despicable Me 2 earned $34 million which is four million more than Monsters University made on day one.

I honestly do not know what more needs to be said on this movie. I have already read impressive rumours of international numbers, which means this is a good time to be an executive for Universal as they have yet to suffer a loss for the year 2013. With Despicable Me 2 having a budget of $70 million, it could make a third movie for this franchise a very enticing endeavour. As well, for lead actor Steve Carell, this movie reinstates his relevance on the big screen and may cause people to forget The Incredible Burt Wonderstone. Carell is also in the limited release movie The Way, Way Back which comes out this weekend and has already generated a lot of critical buzz.

Despicable Me 2 5 Day Opening Weekend Prediction - $150 million